A Facebook friend posted a pro Trump piece that attempted to build a case where “regular” people are all behind Trump for a variety of reasons. At first blush, the reasons are sound and genuine and reflect why there is such an emotional following to Trump. I do not discount nor diminish these feelings.
But re-read the piece again… this time remove the word “regular” people with “white working class.” I’ll wait.
Let’s look at the analytics of who is voting for Trump. March 16th exit polls show that 44% of non-Trump supporters aren’t going to vote for him should he win. That’s pretty massive, considering the other March 16th candidates topped out at 30%. Trump does have crossover power — but of a white, working class America. He’s not going to win the Black vote. Nor the Hispanic. In swing state Florida, only 48% of those voting in the Democratic primary were registered as “white” voters. He’s not winning the educated vote, proudly stating how much he loves the uneducated.
But what the “regular” folks who love Trump posting states that shows a lack of understanding is when it says:
The establishment republican party hates him and has actually been actively trying to take down their own front runner. The establishment democrat party hates him because they know he will crush Hillary in the election, and the establishment media hates him because he totally controls the news cycle and they cannot control him. Even the donor class hates him because he cannot be bought. If all these people who I cannot stand hate him, that only makes me love him more.
Any political party “establishment” understands one key principle. In order to govern, you must first win. The establishment is not Anti-Trump because he cannot be controlled. The establishment is terrified that Trump will not only lose, but be a down-ticket drag and flip the Senate in to Democratic control and — in a nightmare scenario that is becoming less implausible — losing the House too. That the “establishment” may be out of touch with their base is a different issue — and certainly one worth discussing.
Rewind the tape and look at 2012, where had Mitt Romney won even slightly more non-white voters, he win the White House. Can you reasonably expect Trump to win enough “regular” people to overcome everyone else? Seems impossible… but this is why you have elections.