White guys aren’t determining this election…

How many of your friends have said something akin to choosing the lesser of two evils with this election? Chances are that friend was a white guy. Back from the summer, when things were much, much rosier for both candidates, here’s what it looked like with ABC News:

White folks back in the good old days of the summer were at 50% unfavorable for both candidates.  But by the end of the summer… it goes worse for both:

unfavor

But while white guys are wringing their hands over these supposedly bad candidates… dig inside the numbers and you will find that there are demographics who very much like one of the candidates.

minority

Dig into those Net Positives in the columns for Black, Hispanic and Asian for Clinton. This the Hispanic numbers don’t blow you away, they are on the positive side for Hillary, a full 68 points above Trump’s. Over a month ago, SurveyMonkey had even higher numbers:

So it’s quite clear that all this chatter about two bad candidates… is a lot of… white noise.

Two weeks ago, fivethirtyeight.com posted that Trump could win if the “missing white” votes from 2012 were engaged and voting.  But they are not.

Although Trump may be converting plenty of existing voters to his side, there’s really very little evidence that previous nonvotersare coming out of the woodwork in large numbers for him. – 538.com

But this “converting” voters is misleading, because the same site shows that Trump is faring worse than Romney with the non-college white voter.

Even as he piles up support among white men without a college degree, he’s on track for a record poor performance for a Republican among white voterswith a degree. And right now, that tradeoff is a net negative for Trump, compared with Romney. If a ton of new white voters without a degree flooded into the electorate, that could change the math for Trump. – 538.com

The Pew Research Center showed back in February that there projects to be 226 million eligible voters in 2016, of which 31% will be minority voters.  In a typical election, the white vote is split between the two candidates.  For argument’s sake, give 60% of the 165 million white voters to Trump, which comes out at 99 million votes.  Clinton takes home 66 million.  Now factor the minority vote, and give 80% of the remaining 64 million minority votes to Clinton, and you get 118 million for her and 111 for him.  Keep in mind, giving Trump 60% of the white vote is very generous for September, let alone where he is now.

But now unpack the female white vote.  It’s trending fast and furious away from one candidate. Before there was a Trump “sex tape”, women were far and away anti-Trump:

Clinton has consistently led by double digits among female voters, while men have fluctuated from a 42 percent tie between the candidates in June to a current 16-point edge for Trump. Among likely voters, Clinton has a 19-point lead among women, and Trump has an identical lead among men. – Washington Post, Sept. 25

In 2012, 53% of the voters were women. If you re-visit those 165 million white voters and take out 53%, 87 million are women.  Conservatively, giving 60% to Clinton (that 19 point lead two weeks ago) yields 52 million.  Add in her 51 minority votes, and she is at 103. Add in a mere 40% of the male white vote, and she’s at 133 million votes. Trump would come in at 96 million.  This Washington Post poll is illuminating:

Polls are just that, a prediction that sometimes can be wrong.  But when you look at trends as you dig inside the demographics of the 2016 election one thing is really clear.  White guys are not the ones who will decide the Presidency this year.

  • J.
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