The FIRST Witch Hunt was the worst one…

Ah, the President of the United States does love to mangle American History.  This morning he set to his favorite Historical Misappropriation Delivery Tool… Twitter and said:

djt salem

Well, actually… no.  The single greatest Witch Hunt in American political history was the one that actually gave you the name with which you use: witch hunt!  Now whether his is the second or 200th can be debated, but not the “single greatest”.  Continue reading

Much ado About Nothing: Trump’s Month One

The first month of President Trump’s term has been marked by turmoil.  What your politics are determines what that turmoil is.  For the political left, it has been one gobsmacking outrage after another.  For the right, it has been a hounding media blowing up every little Trump tweet and tither into a scandal of Watergate proportions.  But if you sift through the silt, you will see that President Trump hasn’t really done much governing at all in his first month.

While Trump was swift to issue a torrent of Executive Orders, he is ahead of the typical president but lags behind President Obama.  Trump issued 12 Executive Orders in his first month, Obama had 16.  Trump actually takes 3rd place, with Harry S. Truman edging him out by a single order.  By comparison, George W. Bush issued 7, Bill Clinton 6.  Continue reading

What if Trump withdrew from the race?

With the news Friday of the latest Trump bombshell, caught on a “hot mic” leading into an interview, the interwebs are ablaze again, asking… again: Can the GOP replace Trump?

Yes.  And No.

Yes, according to the GOP’s own rules, they are able to at any time replace the candidate for president. Indeed, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) suggested this on Friday.  Back in August, this movement had minor play in the media, and a GOP expert stated that it was completely possible to replace a candidate for any reason.  But that was August… we are now one month out from the General Election.

Could the GOP replace Trump?  Yes, but it seems implausible for any party’s machinations to come together and do so this late in the game.  But what if Trump just quit the race?  Does Pence become the presumptive Presidential candidate?  No. The GOP can select any individual to replace Trump, it doesn’t have to bring Pence in from the Bullpen to take the ball.

But it is already too late to take Trump off the ballot across the country should he be replaced or drop out.  According to individual state laws, a slew of states have already passed the deadline for a candidate to appear on the ballot. There are only 14 of the 50 states where as of October 1st it isn’t clear if a candidate could be added.

That means Trump will be on the ballot across America in just about every state even if he withdraw.  While not quite an equivalent, the idea of a name appearing on a ballot who is no longer in the race… well, America has elected no fewer than 5 dead candidates to Congress, whose untimely passing left their names on a ballot.

However, the Presidential race is different, as our vote isn’t pure like voting for a Congressman or Senator.  Each state has a series of Electors who ultimately cast their vote for President.  Each candidate has a list of Electors who will assemble after the election to vote separately for President and Vice President.

The question becomes, is an Elector bound to vote for the candidate who selected her or him in the first place?  There is no Federal law, so yes, Electors in the states could choose NOT to vote for Trump is he wins the popular vote of that state. But not in 29 states have laws that specify how an Elector can vote.

Most of these state laws generally assert that an elector shall cast his or her vote for the candidates who won a majority of the state’s popular vote, or for the candidate of the party that nominated the elector. – Fair Vote.org

Any time a question can be answered with YES and NO the result is usually the same: chaos.

  • J.

 

TRUMP’s “REGULAR” PEOPLE PROBLEM

A Facebook friend posted a pro Trump piece that attempted to build a case where “regular” people are all behind Trump for a variety of reasons.  At first blush, the reasons are sound and genuine and reflect why there is such an emotional following to Trump.  I do not discount nor diminish these feelings.

But re-read the piece again… this time remove the word “regular” people with “white working class.”  I’ll wait.

Let’s look at the analytics of who is voting for Trump.  March 16th exit polls show that 44% of non-Trump supporters aren’t going to vote for him should he win.  That’s pretty massive, considering the other March 16th candidates topped out at 30%.  Trump does have crossover power — but of a white, working class America.  He’s not going to win the Black vote.  Nor the Hispanic.  In swing state Florida, only 48% of those voting in the Democratic primary were registered as “white” voters.  He’s not winning the educated vote, proudly stating how much he loves the uneducated.

But what the “regular” folks who love Trump posting states that shows a lack of understanding is when it says:

The establishment republican party hates him and has actually been actively trying to take down their own front runner. The establishment democrat party hates him because they know he will crush Hillary in the election, and the establishment media hates him because he totally controls the news cycle and they cannot control him. Even the donor class hates him because he cannot be bought. If all these people who I cannot stand hate him, that only makes me love him more.

Any political party “establishment” understands one key principle. In order to govern, you must first win.  The establishment is not Anti-Trump because he cannot be controlled.  The establishment is terrified that Trump will not only lose, but be a down-ticket drag and flip the Senate in to Democratic control and — in a nightmare scenario that is becoming less implausible — losing the House too.  That the “establishment” may be out of touch with their base is a different issue — and certainly one worth discussing.

Rewind the tape and look at 2012, where had Mitt Romney won even slightly more non-white voters, he win the White House.  Can you reasonably expect Trump to win enough “regular” people to overcome everyone else?  Seems impossible… but this is why you have elections.

  • J.